Tuesday 26 April 2016

April 26th Daily Watchlist Recap - 14 rewatches, 10 new watches

Day Market: S&P – up 0.1%; NSDQ microcap – up 1%;

Top watches tomorrow - $FMSA $BCEI $CBAY $GSL

Multi-day watch à

RPRX began falling finally, at $2.50 area, strong area for break below. Down on day below $2.5 as expected during high vol. in morning. Could not break $2.40. If it can break $2.20 it could drop towards $1.

FMSA high short Ratio could squeeze on breakouts. B/o above $4 in afternoon but faded to $3.89 for finish. First red day, is momentum switching? Could be a good short below $3.80 targeting $3.50 and $3.20. HOT PLAY POTENTIAL SHORT. Spikes historically have been met with quick selling after four/five days and 1.6x gain as is present.

BCEI stock nearly doubled in ten days and fundamentally weak, will be looking for change in momentum to short. Change in momentum here, could not break previous day high of $3.90, 7 times in two days (30 min candle), should fall to $3.40 and if strong b/d to $3. Good one to watch tomorrow.

SEED is a classic pump and dump pattern where spikes always met by rapid price falls. Strong movement at end of day as a result of changing directors pulling above previous high of $2.26. Look for dump. Gap up after hours was met by furious panic selling on open after news went public, did not bounce strong. B/d below $2.08 could head to $1.80 but bulk move is now gone.

NEOT breakout above 1.22. Not a great short squeeze opportunity. High volume trading but news not apparent. Gone from $0.70 to $1.20. Holding $1.25 intraday but finishing low. Stock has now doubled. Drop of 10% intraday after breaking $1.25. Will not trade below $1 but potential to fall to $0.70-$0.80 below $1.

KCG at 52 week and ALL time high of $13.60. Broke down below $13.50 but bounced at $13.40. Broke up above previous high of $13.84 and finishing above $14. Messy pattern so not that interested.

FCSC, I am expecting $3 support breakdown to $2.75-$2.50, Morning spike to $3.78 from put immediately dropped on open and bounced at $3.10. Dropped below $3 on low volume, went higher in the afternoon. Did not play as expected and nothing really on the table.

UNXL had a double top. If it cannot break $2.25 another potential short back to $1.75 again.

EXK, PLG uptrending metal plays. If it breaks $3 should be good for $2.75. Same analysis, low volume on Friday. Looking for break below $3.6 on EXK. PLG could be breaking $3 region and good for $0.25. Removing off watchlist, haven’t risen enough in few days on watchlist and choppy – cannot se pattern so sitting out. PLG analysis incorrect, did not break to $2.75 as it met short term resistance at $2.90. Again, big move has already happened, taking off watchlist.

ZEUS near 52W high at 20.59, trending up over past ten days with tendency for morning spike and afternoon pullback. Looked like it was consolidating below $19.75 in past five days before breaking out. Below $19.90 looks good for 11% to $18 downwards. Morning panic restored by b/o above high of $21. Low trading volume so will discontinue watching.

LGCY oil and gas play – hot sector! broke out above $1.60 ish on high volume. Long term crow pattern (dying), always falls on spikes to lower lows. Look for consolidation then weakness. Consolidating below $3. Good for short to $2.40 and $2 target below that.

First day watch à

GSL up from $1.30 to $1.8 but lots of historical resistance above $2 line. Always dropped on spikes. Look for rejection at $2.10 or $2 to short. Fundamentals support theory that this is up on manipulation. This is one to watch in next few days if volume picks up!! Consolidating after three strong previous green days, good for short below $1.80 for fall to $1.50. SHORT.

MCUR has crappy company fundamentals IMO. Down 17% on the day and bounced at $1.25 like predicted. Putting on next day watchlist to see extent of bounce but will only look for shorts now, cannot even hold two days of gains.

AVXL up on positive Alzheimer drug news. $6.35 BO and $6.50 push through on high volume. Fundamental’s not dire but would consider shorting below $5.90. B/d below $5.90 but bounced. Mistake suggesting to short below $5.90 on good news!! Especially with biotech sector reaching new highs.

BTUUQ pink sheet highly volatile and liquid. Gone from $0.60 to $1.60 in ten days. $1.78 high to break. Poor company stats but potential for high squeeze given 58% short ratio.  Squeeze during morning spike and high volume by 26% but lost all gains in afternoon. Losing momentum, watch for green to red switch.

VSTM broke out at $1.73 intraday in afternoon and third green day. Historically this should turn so looking for momentum shift. Appears to have broken out with catalyst of changing staff. Momentum shift as expected due to historicals. Off the main watchlist but see if it breaks on a bounce.

VKTX broke $1.55 in morning spike on high volume. From $1.20 to $1.7 region in four days (40% gain). BO above $1.80 and holding $1.65, previous spikes always sold into (LT downtrend) so look for change in momentum to the downside with first red day; green red switch on daily. On breaking previous day close and low it fell in panic and bounced around $1.40. Breaking back below $1.50 good for short to $1.35.

Secondary Watches à

ONTY only interesting if it breaks or rejects from $1.80 area, recent spike met with fall. Back watchlist. Remove.

CBAY big break potential above $2.60. Just watching for PA, sat at POC of $2.50 historically.  Back watchlist. Really low volume all day until buys in last 10 minutes pushing above $2.60 and finishing at $2.81. Look for rejection at $2.89 for momentum shift downwards.

STS up to new yearly highs on positive earnings play. Back watchlist and remove

SRPT hugeeee bounce of $10.50. Watching for price action.  Remove

RIGL held $2.80 strong resistance into close down from $2.90. Break above $2.97 on upgrade news to Neutral as catalyst. Won’t short on good news and ok fundamentals. Same analysis, no volatility. Playing positively and only see shorts but won’t short on good catalyst as it would be a risky short.


CCLP gas and oil play from $6.50 to $9 in four days. Expecting fall after fourth green day. Target $8.20 (7%). Broke above high of $9.18 and went to $10, historically $10 has been strong support. Momentum turning round and looking good below $9.10. 

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